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Joe Leider

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Investing

Take cover in these interesting value plays

May 15, 2015 by Leave a Comment

I’ve said stocks are fairly valued, and my expectation of long-term yields and current stock valuations still justify that analysis. But like in George Orwell’s Animal Farm, some stocks are more fairly valued than others. I’ve looked into Warren Buffett’s picks for value ideas. But with so much cash to invest, he’s necessarily biased towards […]

Filed Under: Investing

Do rent yields follow other returns?

May 5, 2015 by Leave a Comment

A few weeks ago I put together a graph on 10-year treasury yields vs. S&P earnings yield. For those of you tired of hearing how stocks are overvalued, or in a “bubble”, you can take solace that there’s a reason stocks are valued as they are. P/E ratios are tightly, inversely correlated to 10-year treasury yields. […]

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Not in a bubble, yet?

April 30, 2015 by Leave a Comment

This article in the most recent issue of the Economist seems to agree with the point I’ve been making for a while now, that stocks are fairly valued. The author starts by saying that the 1990’s tech bubble was, indeed, a bubble. I couldn’t agree more. Valuations went far beyond anything reasonable. The below graph […]

Filed Under: Investing

Four graphs of Warren Buffett’s top bets

April 24, 2015 by 1 Comment

With $106 billion to stash away, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) depends on making good financial decisions. If you’re a value investor and are fishing for good ideas, you could certainly do worse than to fish in the Berkshire pond as shown by this CNBC portfolio tracker. But for me, a table isn’t enough, so […]

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Hoping for a crash

April 23, 2015 by Leave a Comment

I’ve written a few posts on how stocks are fairly valued, or how you might be waiting forever for a crash. I’ve been derided as a wishful thinker, someone ignoring the reality of high P/E ratios and Fed easy money. First of all, there’s no way Fed policy could even be considered easy. No economic indicator […]

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If the stock market crashes, the Fed has failed

April 20, 2015 by Leave a Comment

Markets are on edge waiting for the Fed to raise rates. Conventional wisdom holds that the Fed’s easy money policies have inflated a stock market bubble. When they take away the punch bowl of low interest rates, the stock market will crash correct to long-term average valuations. To illustrate, below is a graph showing inverse […]

Filed Under: Investing

What the CAPE graph really shows: no, it’s not a bubble

April 13, 2015 by Leave a Comment

I get a lot of comments that make me feel insane because I think stocks are fairly valued, or that you could be waiting forever for the next big crash. Just so you know, I’m a big fan of Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, I love companies with low 10-year PE ratios, and I do […]

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The world’s most undervalued stock markets

April 10, 2015 by Leave a Comment

Recently I’ve written about the inverse of P/E ratio (which I call corporate earnings yield) vs. risk-free return (government bond yields). As inflation expectations drop, interest rates also drop, and valuations adjust higher as investors expect less return on their investments. It’s a simple relationship (more below), and it shows that US stocks are fairly […]

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Waiting forever for the next big crash

April 7, 2015 by Leave a Comment

This was an interesting proposition from economist Steen Jakobsen: take 6 months off from the market. With the S&P 500 P/E ratio at 20 and the Shiller CAPE at 27, the market does appear historically overvalued. But stocks are a security like any other. You take the risk-free rate of return (10-year treasuries at 1.9%), add a […]

Filed Under: Investing

Which telecom stock should you pick?

April 6, 2015 by Leave a Comment

With the latest jobs report, it’s starting to look like interest rates could be low for quite some time. For those of you who blame the Fed, you should really check out Bernanke’s new blog on why interest rates are low. For investors, the chase for yield is still on. One great place to find […]

Filed Under: Investing

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