In the late 1990’s, the internet bubble inflated and burst. In the mid 2000’s, we watched housing prices inflate and burst, along with stock prices again. Since 2009 we’ve watched stock prices climb higher and higher, and we’re left wondering, now, are we’re reliving past bubbles? Or are we at a fair valuation considering low interest […]
Austerity, monetarism & growth: between Krugman, Steil & Sumner
In this article, Paul Krugman uses a simple scatter plot of government spending vs. real GDP growth to prove that austerity doesn’t work. In his response in Forbes, Benn Steil invokes Scott Sumner, reproducing Krugman’s graphic without Eurozone countries. The thought is that monetary offset negates fiscal stimulus. Steil believes you should exclude countries without […]
The most expensive hospitals in America – a data visualization case study
I recently came across a fascinating data set – the Inpatient Prospective Payment System (IPPS) Provider Summary for the top 100 diagnoses. The name is quite a mouthful, as is the data on charges at 3,332 hospitals for the top 100 diagnoses. Unfortunately with so many attributes, it’s hard to spot a good story. First I’ll […]
Where the states get their tax revenue: a data visualization case study
Different states pursue different tax strategies. Most rely on sales or income tax for most of their money, though there are outliers. Natural-resource-heavy states like Wyoming, North Dakota and Alaska rely on “other” taxes. Corporation-heavy Delaware gets a disproportionate amount of revenue from licenses. Below is an initial look at % of revenue from each source […]
Is Janet Yellen becoming Dennis Hopper?
For those of you who missed the 1990’s, the movie Speed inexplicably became a box office hit. The villain, played by Dennis Hopper, attaches a bomb to a bus that will explode if it goes under 50 mph. What follows is a trail of destruction through Los Angeles as Keanu Reeves and Sandra Bullock keep the bus […]
Which industries are recession proof?
There seems to be a lot of confusion among analysts, economists and investors as to what higher interest rates mean for stock markets. A lot of folks are eating up the fallacy that higher interest rates mean tighter monetary policy. While that could be the case, it’s not necessarily so. But that myth is causing markets […]
Crypto currencies & negative interest rates
I recently had a thoughtful comment on LinkedIn in reply to Replacing the Fed with a computer from someone on the far-opposite spectrum on monetary policy thinking as me. To see the whole discussion click here. Now, I don’t think a fix-amount-of-currency monetary policy could work because of human psychology, but I love thought experiments. Therefore, I wanted […]
The March jobs report in context
The March jobs report came out today, and the economy racked up another impressive number. This was somewhat surprising as all the previous economic reports this week suggested weakness and depressed prices. Indeed, the jobs report contained a nugget of bad news as wages only increased 2% over the past year. Questions remain around when […]
Do high P/E ratios scare you?
Replacing the Fed with a computer
A lot of investors are looking at the CAPE or historical P/E ratios and scratching their heads. They’re wondering when the dreaded reversion to mean will happen. Because it always happens, right? Well, not necessarily. The CAPE has been rising in a long-term trend since the early 1980’s. There have been ups and downs, for […]